Project title: Early warning monitoring system for conflict prevention

Governmental agency: National Institute for Strategic Studies of the Kyrgyz Republic

Consultancy assignment: Support to the development of a geospatial system with indicators for early warning conflict monitoring in Kyrgyzstan



 Kyrgyzstan has gone through serious political and economic shocks well-known as March events in 2005 and April and June events of 2010. Revolutionary overthrows of two previous presidents demonstrated the lack of dialogue between society and governors. The National Institute for Strategic Studies of the Kyrgyz Republic (NISS KR) has developed specific risk monitoring tools in the past and now seeks to build on this experience and tools to develop a comprehensive and socio-economic and political monitoring system in the country for conflict prevention.

The Parliamentary elections monitoring conducted by NISS KR in 2015 can be qualified as one of the successful national practices with the use of new informational technologies. The Election risk monitoring project was realized with the financial help from UNDP and expert support from Peace Nexus Foundation. The field monitors contributed to preventing a number of conflicts during the entire period of election process: pre-election period, day of elections and post-election period. Moreover, the software programme - Election Risk Management Tool– allowed managers to identify the districts that were under risk of potential conflicts. That had a positive effect on governmental agencies’ response.

NISS KR continues the practical use of conflict risk monitoring in Kyrgyzstan: interethnic situation monitoring as well as monitoring of cross-border issues. The analysis based on collected data allows the government to make appropriate and timely decisions at high level. However, there is a need to make the system more comprehensive -- to create a country-wide geospatial system including additional indicators for monitoring the socio-economic and political issues in the country in order to prevent potential conflicts. NISS of the KR identifies the following conflict issues that the system will cover: water resources, borders, ethnic issues, criminal situation, land resources, religious situation, electoral processes, use of mineral resources, overall social-political and economic situation monitoring.

This Terms of Reference has been articulated and defined by representatives of the National Institute for Strategic Studies of the Kyrgyz Republic. PeaceNexus Foundation is partnering with NISS in support of this project. PeaceNexus Foundation therefore is seeking to contract a consultant to help to develop a geospatial system for early warning and conflict prevention that will positively affect the socio-political situation and enhance existing capacities for peace in the country.


This consultancy is for an international expert to work with NISS to assess the various monitoring and early warning efforts that are ongoing in Kyrgyzstan and to identify ways in which these disparate efforts can be harmonized to provide a consolidated and holistic assessment of conflict and security environment. 

The international consultant will need to map, analyze and understand the various efforts to monitor conflict and identify peacebuilding potential in the country.  The consultant will need to work with the partners to develop a meta-level set of indicators for monitoring the socio-economic and political situation in Kyrgyzstan. In this context, the international consultant will work under the direct supervision of a representative of the NISS KR and will be responsible for the following specific tasks:

  1. Together with the NISS team undertake a mapping of monitoring and early warning efforts and undertake a stakeholders’ consultation to elaborate the terms of their positions as well as motivations to contribute to such as a system;
  2. Explore the appetite for an overall monitoring system after reviewing the previous efforts in the country to develop similar early warning systems.
  3. Develop and agree an Action Plan for designing, introducing and testing such a system with all stakeholders.
  4. Conduct training sessions on methodologies used for conflict monitoring/conflict prevention system and analysis for the NISS team. Introduce case studies and/or success stories inform best practice.
  5. Together with the NISS team develop indicators for a holistic early warning monitoring system to identify conflict risks and inform response and prevention. 
  6. Together with the NISS team integrate into the consolidated analytical model the existing instruments for monitoring (ERMTool, instruments for monitoring interethnic and border issues) into the early warning monitoring system for conflict prevention, and propose a set of mechanisms for realizing the geospatial system reflected in the revised and adapted Action Plan.



Core values:

- Professionalism – demonstrate professional competence and expert knowledge of the      pertinent substantive areas of work;

- Cultural sensitivity and respect for organizational specifics.

Functional competencies:

-          Experience in designing, developing, providing and evaluating monitoring systems as well as ability to train the staff of the project;

-          Ability to provide value-added insight to the project theme and project team;

-          Exceptional written and oral communication skills;

-          Outstanding presentation skills

-          Strong analytical skills;

-          Strong report writing skills in English;


-          Education -- Bachelor’s degree or equivalent in sociology, political/international relations studies or relevant area; MA degree or PhD will be considered as asset.

-          Experience -- At least 5 years of experience related to conflict monitoring.

-          Knowledge and prior experience working in the post-Soviet countries would be an asset.

-          Language - Fluency in English and working knowledge of Russian (written and oral) will be an asset.


The international expert together with the NISS team should present an analytical model of early warning monitoring system for conflict prevention and action plan with suggested steps in institutionalizing it. Specific deliverables are:

  1. Inception report reflecting a critical analysis of previous efforts to introduce such systems, existing stakeholders ‘analysis and nation-wide ‘appetite’ assessment, a first draft of action plan on how to design and institutionalize a monitoring system;
  2. 2-days workshop to introduce best practices and case studies on methodologies, systems for conflict risks monitoring, prevention and response;
  3. List of factors and indicators developed jointly with NISS team, which will be a part of analytical model for monitoring, response and prevention.
  4. Proposal for an integrated and holistic analytical model based on existing experience and capacity of NISS, which will form the core of the monitoring system (to be developed further and later by NISS – beyond the frame of this assignment). Plus the revised action plan adapted to the country context and capacity of NISS.
  5. Final report on the assignment


The consultant will provide support to the activities outlined in the period of May-July 2017 (exact dates to be confirmed). The consultancy can be delivered through recurring visits to Kyrgyzstan with some desktop analysis from a residence country of a consultant and electronic exchange and communication with NISS team in-between visits.

Estimated number of working days:

  1. Inception report and draft action plan – 5 days for desktop review, 3 days in the country
  2. Workshop – 3 days for workshop preparation and 3 days for workshop visit
  3. List of factors and indicators- 10 days for analysis and design of factors and indicators
  4. Analytical model – 3 days in Kyrgyzstan to discuss and draft analytical model with indicators,5 days to re-design the model based on discussion with NISS and other important stakeholders
  5. Final draft report on the assignment – 2 days.

Total 34 working days.

The PeaceNexus Foundation will cover consultant fees and international travel costs. NISS will provide a working space as well as access to all relevant materials.


Please send an expression of interest letter explaining your motivation, qualifications for the assignment and your daily fee, along witha curriculum vitae to Этот адрес электронной почты защищен от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.'; document.getElementById('cloak12074').innerHTML += ''+addy_text12074+''; //--> and Этот адрес электронной почты защищен от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра. by 19 May 2017. Interviews will take place in the following week.

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